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2008年，中国遭遇了两次前所未见的巨大自然灾害。1月10日至2月2日，全国先后发生4次大范围低温雨雪冰冻天气过程，持续20多天，农作物受灾面积1.78亿亩；倒塌房屋48.5万间；因灾直接经济损失1,516.5亿元。之后发生在我国四川的汶川“5•12”特大地震灾难也造成了无法估量的损失，对全中国乃至整个世界都是一场可怕的梦魇，是人类历史上又一人道灾难，风险评估公司AIRWorldwide表示，中国四川省发生的强烈地震造成的经济损失将超过200亿美元，折合人民币约为1400亿元左右。
in 2008, before China has encountered the huge natural disaster which two times, has not seen. January 10 to February 2, the nation has 4 time wide range low temperature sleet to freeze the synoptic process successively, continues more than 20 days, the crops disaster area 178,000,000 Chinese acres; Collapse house 485,000; Because disaster direct economic losses 1,516.5 hundred million Yuan. Afterward occurred in our country Sichuan's Wenchuan “512” the especially big earthquake disaster has also caused the losses which was unable to estimate, to the entire China and even the entire world was a fearful nightmare, was in the human history another humanity disaster, risk assessment company AIRWorldwide indicated that the Chinese Sichuan occurred the strong earthquake created the economic loss will surpass 20,000,000,000 US dollars, the reduced Renminbi approximately will be about 140,000,000,000 Yuan.
同时，两次自然灾害对受灾地区的供应链也造成了巨大的损伤，交通运输及企业生产几乎完全中断。大量的教训告诉我们，在供应链的运行中存在着许多的不确定性和风险，这些风险轻则损坏供应链环节带来损失，重则使整个供应链陷入瘫痪，给国民经济带来重创，在我国经济腾飞的今天，对于供应链的风险管理尤为重要，它保证了供应链的顺利运行和面对自然灾害等风险下的应急处理。本文就据此探讨一下供应链的不确定性及风险管理
At the same time, two natural disasters have also created the huge damage to disaster area's supply chain, the transportation and the enterprise produce interrupt nearly completely. The massive lessons tell us, in supplies in chain's movement to have many uncertainty and the risk, these risks are light, then the damage supply chain link brings the loss, the heavy piece causes the entire supply chain to fall into the paralysis, the national economy brings the heavy losses for, soars today in our country economy, regarding supplies chain's risk management especially important, it had guaranteed supplies risk and so on under chain's smooth movement and facing natural disaster emergency processing. This article according to the above discusses supplies chain's uncertainty and the risk management

【关键词】
【key word 】

供应链的不确定性
Supplies chain's uncertainty

风险
Risk

风险管理
Risk management

自然灾害
Natural disaster

风险评估
Risk assessment

In 2008, China encounters unseen before enormous natural calamity two times. From the 10th of January to February 2, the icy weather course of broad low-temperature sleet of 4 times successively happens in the whole country, lasts more than 20 days, the disaster area of the crops is 11866666.667 hectares; 485,000 collapsed houses; Because 1,516.5 hundred million yuan of direct economic losses of calamity. Take place enormous earthquake disaster of " 512 " of Wenchuan of Sichuan cause the losses that can't be appraised either in our country later, it is a terrible nightmare to the whole of China and even the whole world, it is another humanity disaster in the history of mankind, risk assess company AIRWorldwide say China over 20 billion dollars economic losses that strong earthquake that Sichuan Province take place cause, it is about about 140 billion yuan to convert to RMB.
Meanwhile, natural calamity two times caused enormous damage to the supply chain in the disaster-affected area too, communications and transportation and enterprise are produced and nearly totally cut off. A large number of lessons tell us, there is a lot of uncertainty and risk in supplying the operation of the chain, risk these light to damage, supply chain link bring loss is serious to make, supply chain paralyse entirely, bring to national economy and maul, today of economic liftoff of our country, particularly important for supplying the risk management of the chain, it has guaranteed to supply the smooth operation of the chain and face the emergency processing under risks such as the natural calamity,etc.. This text supplies uncertainty of the chain and risk management according to this discussion.
Keyword: Supply the uncertainty of the chain, the risk, risk management, natural calamity, the risk is assessed