从图上可以看出,选用y=a*exp(b*x)+c进行拟合是不对的,应改用polynomial中的
cubic polynomial,我试着拟合得:
Linear model Poly3:
f(x) = p1*x^3 + p2*x^2 + p3*x + p4
where x is normalized by mean 2007 and std 3.028
Coefficients (with 95% confidence bounds):
p1 = 1.903e+006 (-3.354e+007, 3.734e+007)
p2 = 2.888e+007 (5.686e+005, 5.719e+007)
p3 = 7.472e+007 (1.333e+007, 1.361e+008)
p4 = 1.204e+008 (8.642e+007, 1.543e+008)
Goodness of fit:
SSE: 5.048e+015
R-square: 0.922
Adjusted R-square: 0.883
RMSE: 2.901e+007
画出图如下,