美国次级债危机正在被放大
The time class in the United States debt crisis is being enlarge
欧美股市进来连续大幅跳水，担忧的起源来自美国次级贷款市场。
The Europe and America stock market come in continuous significant jump into water, misgiving of the origins come from the United States time class loan market.
次级抵押贷款危机会否戳破全球资产泡沫？
Would the time class collateral loan crisis deny Chuo to break a world property a foam?
文/梅新育
The text/plum is new to teach
次级抵押贷款变成了高悬美国金融市场头顶的达摩克利斯之剑。
The time class collateral loan became Gao Xuan2 the Bodhidharma gram of financial market top of head in the United States the sword of the benefit Si.
鉴于次级抵押贷款规模庞大,美国公布的2005-2006年间美国累计发放次级抵押贷款统计数字是1.5万亿美元;
Owing to the time class collateral loan scale's being huge, the United States announce of 2005-2006 year, the United States total amount's issuing the time class collateral loan statistics be 1.5 USD;
且房地产业是本次美国经济景气期的最重要推动力量之一,近5年来美国新增GDP中有50%来自房地产业,居民消费增长的70%依赖于房地产增值的财富效应。
And the real estate industry be this time United States economy economic prosperity period of most importance push one of the strengths, about 5 in the last years the United States add to have 50% to come from a real estate industry in the GDP, residents consume growth of 70% dependence increase in value at the real estate of wealth effect.
房地产与金融业之间有着天然的紧密联系。
The of real estate and financial industry has natural close contact.
从1980年代末到1990年代初的美国储贷协会危机,到日本泡沫经济破灭期间的金融机构不良资产危机,再到被1997年金融危机引爆的东亚经济体房地产市场和金融部门不良资产危机,莫不如此。
From 1980's end to the beginning of 1990's of the United States banking association crisis, go to Japan the bubble economy fall through the financing institution in period bad property crisis, again go to is melted economy real estate market in the East Asia that the crisis set off by 1997 annuities and finance section bad property crisis, might it not be such.
人们曾经以为证券化技术的进步能够消除这种危机,但截至目前,这场危机最明显的表现仍然发生在金融机构之间,不少金融机构由于重仓投资与次级抵押贷款相关的衍生金融工具而蒙受重创:
People once thought the stock certificate turn the progress of technique can cancellation this kind of crisis, but up to currently, this crisis most obvious of performance still occurrence between the financing institution, not a few financing institution because of heavy camalig investment and time class the collateral loan relatedly develop finance tool but suffer serious wound:
6月,华尔街投资银行贝尔斯登旗下的两只基金,因大量投资于次级抵押贷款支持的复合证券而陷入困境。
June, the investment bank in Wall Street shell Er Si ascend two underneath fund, because of pump capital into collateral loan at the time class support of compound stock certificate but sink into a predicament.
7月下旬,与金融机构有关的坏消息接踵而来:次级抵押贷款放款公司American Home Mortgage Investment Corp.
July last ten days of month, have something to do with financing institution of bad news closely upon heels and since then:time class the collateral loan loan the company Mortgage Investment of the American Home Corp.
表示已无可供发放新贷款的新资金;
Mean to haven't can be provided to issue lately- lend money new funds;
贝尔斯登旗下又一对冲基金因次级抵押债务投资发生亏损,并宣布暂停赎回;
The shell Er Si ascend another underneath rightness blunt fund because of time class mortgage obligation investment occurrence loss in business, and declare pause to claim pawned article;
花旗集团估计次级抵押贷款债券价格下跌已使联邦国民抵押贷款协会和联邦住房贷款抵押公司所持此类证券价值缩水47亿美元……
Flower ensign group estimate the time class collateral loan bond price slump have already make federal citizen collateral loan association and federal housing loan mortgage company hold this kind stock certificate value shrinkage USD 4,700,000,000 ……
风声鹤唳之下,惊慌失措的市场参与者们正在抛售几乎一切金融类股票,投机者们借机兴风作浪,甚至并未卷入次级抵押贷款市场、或者卷入不多的金融机构也未能幸免:7月31日,并不直接投资于次级按揭抵押债务的澳大利亚最大投行麦格理银行向投资者发出警告称,美国次级抵押债务市场的忧虑使该机构的美国高收益企业债投资潜在损失最高可达25%;8月1日,德意志银行虽然公布的业绩出色,且表示次级抵押贷款危机并未殃及自身,但投资者的大举抛售导致其在法兰克福证交所上市的股票下跌2%以上;
Nervous atmosphere of war and turmoil under, the market be rattled the participants just dump almost the whole finance type stock, the speculators lend machine to stir up trouble, even not draw in time class collateral loan market, perhaps draw in not much of the financing institution can not also escape by luck: July 31 day, not direct investment at the time class according to Jie mortgage obligation of Australia is biggest hurl line wheat space reason bank to send out warning to call toward the investor, the United States time class mortgage obligation market of worried make that organization of the United States Gao income business enterprise debt investment latent loss tallest can reach to 25%;August a day, although the virtuous will bank announce of accomplishment is outstanding, and mean the time class collateral loan crisis not Yang and oneself, investor of distinctly dump cause its stock for appear on market in Frankfurt's stock exchange slump above 2%;
美林公司股价自今年初以来累计下跌22%左右;
The United States wood company stock price from the beginning of this year total amount slump 22% be or so;
花旗集团1月份以来累积跌幅达到16%;
Flower ensign group January accumulation the fall attain 16%;
雷曼兄弟股价累计下挫约22%。
The thunder Man brothers stock price total amount slip about 22%.
问题补充：
Problem complement:
其实,与美国经济规模、美国金融市场的广度和深度相比,有风险的次级抵押贷款不算特别多。
In fact, with the United States economy scale, the United States financial market of wide degree and depth compare and have the collateral loan of the time class of risk not calculate special much.
如上文,危机初起之时公布的2005-2006年间美国累计发放次级抵押贷款统计数字是1.5万亿美元,一般预计其中有大约15%(即2250亿美元)可能在直至2008年底这段时间内发生风险。
As above text, crisis beginning it hour announce of 2005-2006 year, the United States total amount's issuing the time class collateral loan statistics be 1.5 USD, general anticipate to have about 15%(namely USD 225,000,000,000) among them may in until the end of 2008 this time occurrence risk.
问题是过度反应可能导致危机蔓延,进而导致市场参与者们的担忧自我实现。
Problem is excessiveness the reaction may cause the crisis spread and then cause market the participants of misgiving ego realization.
过度反应一方面可能出现在实际的房地产市场,另一方面可能出现在金融市场。
Excessiveness reaction on the other hand possibility emergence at actual of real estate market, on the other hand possibility emergence in the financial market.
在第一个方面,丧失抵押品赎回权的次级抵押贷款借款人在2006年已达到40万人次,2007年可能翻番,收回抵押品的贷款机构如果为了尽快脱身而低价在空置相当严重的市场上低价脱手,将可能形成一条完整的"死亡螺旋":丧失抵押品赎回权的借款人增多
At 1, lose the time class collateral loan that the collateral for loan claim pawned article power to borrow funds a person at 2006 already arrive 40, 2007 may turn over a time, take back collateral for loan of loan organization if for getting away as soon as possible but low price at empty place equal severity of on the market low price sell, will possibility the formation be an integrity of"death spiral":lose collateral for loan to claim pawned article borrow funds of power a person to increase
----房地产市场空置现象加剧----贷款机构低价脱手----- 房价进一步下跌----借款人信用问题进一步加剧----更多的抵押品无法赎回,1990年代初,美国加州和东北部的房地产危机就是这样蔓延开来的,以至于最终成为席卷全国的经济危机。。
-Real estate market empty place phenomenon to turn worse-loan organization low price sell- the building price be further slump-borrow funds a person a reputation problem further turn worse-more collateral for loan can't claim pawned article, the beginning of 1990's, the United States California and the northeast of real estate crisis be so spread to open come of, with as for end become roll up whole country of economy crisis..
Subordinated Debt crisis in the United States is being enlarged
Europe and the United States come for the stock market sharply diving, the origin of concern from the United States secondary loan market. Secondary mortgage loan crisis of global asset bubble will burst?
/ Mei Xinyu
Secondary mortgage loans into the United States financial markets hanging high atop the sword of Damocles. Given the large secondary mortgage loans, the announcement of the United States 2005-2006, a total of secondary mortgage statistics are 1.5 trillion US dollars; This is the real estate industry and the economy of the United States of one of the most important driving force for the past five years that the United States additional 50% of GDP from real estate, consumer growth of 70% dependent on the value of real estate wealth effect.
Real estate and the financial industry have a natural linked. From the late 1980s to the early 1990s, the American Association of Reserve credit crisis, the burst of the bubble economy in Japan during the crisis of non-performing assets of financial institutions, and then to the 1997 East Asian financial crisis triggered the real estate market economy and the financial sector crisis of non-performing assets, past. It has been thought that the Securities and technological progress to the elimination of this crisis, but at present, the crisis remains the most visible manifestation in the financial institutions, many financial institutions because Indemnity secondary mortgage investment and related derivatives suffered damage:
In June, the Wall Street investment bank Bear Stearns's two funds, because of massive investments in the secondary mortgage loan to support the composite securities in financial difficulties. In late July, the financial institutions and the bad news coming: secondary mortgage lending company American Home Mortgage Investment Corp.. That no longer issuing new loans for the new capital; Bearsden's another hedge fund for investment in secondary mortgage debt losses, and suspend the redemption; Spend flag Group estimates secondary mortgage bond prices have dropped to the Federal National Mortgage Association and the federal housing loans held by companies such securities worth 4.7 billion US dollars shrink ...
Everyone, panic market participants are selling almost all financial stocks, speculators who took the opportunity to stir up trouble, not even involved in the secondary mortgage market, or into small financial institutions are also not spared: July 31, does not directly invest in the secondary mortgage Arrives Australia's largest debt-encumbered investment bank Macquarie Bank warned investors that the U.S. secondary mortgage debt market worries that the agency's American high-yield corporate debt investment potential losses of up to 25%; August 1, although Deutsche Bank announced outstanding performance, and that sub arrives the grantor does not compromise its own loan crisis, but investors sold massive lead in the Frankfurt Stock Exchange-listed shares fell more than 2%; Merrill's stock since the beginning of this year has fallen about 22%; Citigroup accumulated since the January decline was 16%; Lehman Brothers shares a total dropped by about 22%.
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