求一篇关于人民币升值的影响的英文文献原文，要有出处与作者

　　The predicament of appreciation of the RMB
　　Recently, China has been under heavy international pressure to abandon its currency's de facto peg to the U.S. dollar. The US Treasury Department is highly likely to label China a currency manipulator in a report due out in mid-April.

　　United States claimed that the undervalued Chinese currency has widened the U.S. trade deficit with China and has cost U.S. manufacturing jobs. Congress has urged China to revalue its currency. However, the Chinese government insists that the competitiveness of Chinese goods comes from low labor costs rather than from the lower exchange rate.

　　Meanwhile, most U.S. and Chinese economists agree that at this moment a sudden rise in the yuan's value would do more harm than good for China, the United States, and the world economy. This is not to say that China does not need to review the yuan's valuation and its exchange rate regime.

　　It is difficult to determine, however, whether a currency is undervalued or overvalued in a nonmarket economy. In the Western world, undervaluation of the yuan’s d is considered as universal rule.

　　It differ a lot using different calculation methods. Professor Huang Yiping recently pointed that, Menzie China’s calculations which bases on purchasing power parity (PPP) show that 40% of the RMB exchange rate is undervalued. But if we consider the World Bank’s usage of purchasing power parity which is adjusted by China's GDP, 40% disappeared; Nicholas Lardy and Morris Goldstein concluded that the yuan is undervalued by 12% to 16% (at the end of 2008); Yao Yang and his colleagues calculated that underestimation the level of less than Lardy’s estimates.

　　It is seems that IMF does not represent any one country and may be perhaps convincing. IMF in 2006 to strengthen the bilateral exchange rates of member evaluation mechanism using its own set of assessment methods, specifically including macroeconomic balance (MB), equilibrium real exchange rate (ERER) and external sustainability (ES).

　　In 2006, IMF politely praised the Chinese government’s investment in the crisis, but also diplomatically cautioned that "some directors considered that the RMB is undervalued." In the future, IMF will launch China's of a new round of negotiation. The U.S. Treasury will make some measures earlier than the IMF's actions. April 15, the United States could have labeled China as a "currency manipulator". According U.S. law, the U.S. Treasury must decide before April 15, submitting the semi-annual report to Congress about the exchange rate policies of major trading partners, especially on whether consider China as a currency manipulator.

　　Washington has declined to name the Chinese case in the past, but because of high unemployment, the U.S. Congress has become tougher. Some senators proposed legislations that if Beijing does not change its policy, the tariffs on Chinese goods. If that were the case, it will be the first time in 16 years. By declaring China a currency manipulator, the US could slap additional tariffs on imports from the country.

　　Some economists said that RMB’s revaluation is the most effective measures to reduce the unemployment rate. He said that the yuan is undervalued against the dollar by 40%, and the U.S. current account deficit will be reduced from 100 to 150 billion U.S. dollars without this gap, creating 600,000 to 1,200,000 new jobs.

　　At the same time, Chinese experts strongly doubt the US will do so as it will provoke Beijing and jeopardize its most important trade relationship, while others believe that even if China were declared a currency manipulator, Washington will not follow up with punitive measures.

　　The most hard-line organization against the United States Congress is the Trading Associations from major exporters. For example, electrical and mechanical industry of China's exports of China's total exports accounted for nearly 60%. All exporters emphasize that the appreciation of the RMB will cause more terrible than in 2005.

　　Over the past few years, China's trade surplus continued to make China as a target of public criticism, its exchange rate policy has been criticized. The U.S. officials believe that China's huge trade surplus continued to show that the exchange rate which has been pegged to the dollar is undervalued since mid-2008 as a "unfair" competitive advantage. Chinese officials contend that China's trade surplus over the past year has been substantially narrowed. Now, Beijing's position may be supporting data.

　　In March, trade deficit will record more than 80 billion U.S. dollars. If true, it means the maintenance of nearly six years of China's trade surplus pattern will change. China's last monthly trade deficit appeared in April 2004. If the actual trade deficit happens in March, it is indicated that other countries promote their own economic growth by the sale of goods to China. Moreover, the trade deficit will reduce the monetary and trade policies of China's international political pressure. The future of offshore money market appreciation of the RMB is expected to slightly decline.

　　However, even there is one month’s trade deficit, it won’t continue. The World Bank estimates that China's current account surplus will increase to 304 billion U.S. dollars this year. As long as China has a surplus, the yuan’s exchange rate will still be economic problems scapegoat by some trading partners from time to time.

　　On the other hand, the US’ easy monetary policy would negatively affect China’s economic and financial and macroeconomic policies. The loose monetary policy weakens the dollar and undermines dollar-denominated assets to attract short-term international capital, which drove enormous volumes of ‘hot money’ into China. The dollar devaluation, compounded by excess liquidity, heightens pressure to appreciate the yuan. A sharp rise of the yuan would wreak devastating blows on export-oriented enterprises and cause massive layoffs, and subsequently cause incalculable damage to the overall operation of China’s economy. So it is very hard to find an equilibrium exchange rate point and to define an appropriate level concerning the appreciation margin.

　　The capital account is under strict control in China, and the real foreign exchange market is yet to be established. The yuan's exchange rate, which is actually dictated by the government, cannot be regarded as the market equilibrium rate, nor can it serve as a true mirror of the country's real supply and demand for foreign exchange. It is sensible to change the foreign exchange regime itself rather than to change its value.
　　留美学生 马戈 （责任编辑：郝孟佳）

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