推荐回答(1个)
随着5G的到来,射频器件的需求将大幅增加。分析机构预测,到2023年射频前端市场规模有望突破352亿美元,年复合增长率达到14%。快速增长的市场让行业看到了机会,新的射频公司在不断地涌现出来,尤其是在国内,打造自主射频供应链就成为很多厂商的追求,但纵观现状,似乎差距还是很明显。
手机和通讯市场仍是主流,NB-IoT市场将爆发
射频器件是无线连接的核心,是实现信号发送和接收的基础零件,有着广泛的应用。目前,射频器件的几大主要市场大概分布是:1)手机和通讯模块市场,预估占80%;2 ) WIFI路由器市场,预估占9%;3)通讯基站市场,预估占9%;4)NB-IoT市场,预估占2%。
随着5G的到来,万物互联有了更强的技术支撑,NB-IoT市场将会爆发,但时间点还不确定。目前NB-IoT市场是热,但没有开始走量。5G通讯手机和模块市场将促发射频器件需求大幅增长。5G通讯基站市场相对4G时代,射频器件的需求也是成倍增加。WiFi路由器市场,在5G时代,射频器件的需求存在一定的不确定性。所以,在笔者看来,未来射频器件最重要的市场需求来自:1)手机和通讯模块市场,2)NB-IoT市场。
5G发展进程将提速,5G建设有望提前开启
我国积极开展5G技术研发,已先后解决了关键技术验证与技术方案验证,预计今年9月发布系统方案验证测试结果,不久后将进行5G产品研发试验。3大运营商开展5G技术测试与研发,积极开始5G试点。5G发展进程将提速,5G建设有望提前开启。
驱动射频前端加速
5G时代通讯标准进一步升级,带来手机射频前端单机价值量持续快速增长。据前瞻产业研究院发布的《5G产业发展前景预测与产业链投资机会分析报告》统计数据显示,智能手机射频前端的市场规模在2016年达到101亿美元,预计2022年市场规模将超过227亿美元,复合增长率达到14%。手机射频前端价值量在5G时代有望成长至22美金以上。滤波器是射频前端市场中最大的业务板块,5G时代手机频段支持数量将大量增长,带动单机滤波器价值量快速增长,其市场规模将从2016年的52.08亿美元增长至2022年的163.11亿美元,年均复合增速达到21%。
2016-2022年中国射频前端各细分零部件市场规模统计情况及预测

数据来源:前瞻产业研究院整理
国内射频芯片产业链已经基本成熟,从设计到晶圆代工,再到封测,已经形成完整的产业链。从国际竞争力来讲,国内的射频设计水平还处在中低端。以上PA和开关厂商,射频芯片产品销售额加起来大约5亿美金,大陆射频芯片厂商销售额大约3亿美金。全球PA和开关射频产品需求金额大约60亿美金。可见,国内厂商依然在起步阶段,市场话语权有限;滤波器方面,国内厂商销售总额不到1亿美金,全球市场需求在90亿美金。
换句话说,以后通过提升设计能力,辅助调试工作来提升射频性能,国内射频产业还有很大的成长空间。
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